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1.Mortality is the death rate, the number of deaths per 100 (or 1,000 or 100,000) persons alive at the begin­ning of the period. Morbidity- is the incidence of illness or ill health, the number of cases per 100 (or 1,000 or 100,000) persons.

2.Douglass С North, Structure and Change in Economic History (New York: Norton, 1981).

3.Note that this relationship, death rate = Uflife expectancy), is a stock/flow equation analogous to the rela­tionship between interest rates and the valueof an annuity, interest = coupon/(price of bond), presented in finance texts, and is also rather similar to the stock/flow relationship between medical graduates and physi­cian supply discussed in Chapter 7, Section 3.

4.A rule of thumb for compounding is known as the "rule of seventy-two." If you divide seventy-two by the interest rate, it gives the approximate length of time required to double your money. For very small rates of increase, such as those discussed here, a better approximation is to use seventy rather than seventy-two. Thus 70 \ 2 = 35 years to double at 2 percent per year, 70 \ 0.35 = 200 years to double at 0.35 percent, and 70 \ 0.1 = 700 years to double at 0.1 percent rate of growth. This rule is quite accurate for rates less than 5 percent, and can be computed by hand or with a simple calculator until you have time to check the result with a spreadsheet.

5.For a large empirical study of conditions in the Americas, see Richard H. Steckel and Jerome C. Rose, eds., 77ie BackBone of History: Health And Nutrition in the Western Hemisphere (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002). An earlier assessment is found in Mark Nathan Cohen and George ). Ainelagos, eds., Paleopathology at the Origins of Agriculture (New York Academic Press, 1984), and a general overview in Mark Nathan Cohen, Health and the Rise of Civilization (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989). It must be rec­ognized that "life expectancy" varied widely (plus or minus ten years or more, e-ven for groups living within a few miles of each other during the same time periods). Hence any comparisons of relative health are only rough indicators subject to many caveats and assumptions. The demographic data in this chapter is drawn largely from the books and articles by Deaton, Fogel, and Livi-Bacci listed among the Suggestions for Further Reading, as well asWrigleyand Schofield (note 16)McKeown (note 32) and McEvedy and Jones (note 9).

6.Theodore Tulchinsky and Elena Varavikova, "Addressing the Epidemiologic Transition in the Former Soviet Union," American Journal of Public Health 86, no. 3 (1996): 313-320.

7.Barrie Cassileth, Vasily Vlassov, and Christopher Chapman, "Health Care, Medical Practice, and Medical Ethics in Russia Today," journal of the American Medical Association 273, no. 20 )1995): 1569-1573.

8.Johannes Nohl, "The Black Death: A Chronicle of the Plague, Compiled From Contemporary Sources" (London: Unwin Books, 1971); Philip Ziegler, Tlie Black Death (New York: John Day Company, 1969).

9.Massimo Livi-Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (Cambridge Mass.: Blackwell, 1992), 47, 106; Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, Atlas of World Population History (Middlesex: Penguin, 1978), 25.

10. Massimo Livi-Bacci, Population and Nutrition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991).

11.

12. Maurice Brown, Adam Smith's Economics: Its Place in the Development of Economic Thought (London: Croon Helm, 1988): E. G. West, Adam Smith and Modern Economics: From Market Behavior ro Social Choke, Aldershot, Hants (England: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1990).

13. Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Pop ulatioa, 1803, new edition by Patricia James for the Royal Economic Society (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).

14. Livi-Bacci (1992), p. 65.

15. Gary D. Hansen and Edward С Prescott, "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review 92, no. 4 (September 2002): 1205-1217.

16. E. A. Wrigley and R. S. Schofield, Vie Population History of England, 1541-1871: A Reconstruction (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981).

17. Gary Becker, A Treatise on the Family (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981).

18. A surprisingly large number of successful entrepreneurs and inventors go bankrupt several times before and after they strike it rich. Such risk taking is not feasible if two bad years in a row means starvation.

19. Note that the rise of the middle class economy applies only within the small subset of developed countries. For most of the world's population, sharp divisions between rich and poor continued lo be the rule. Francois Bourguignon and Christian Morrisson, "Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992," American Economic Review 92, no. 4 (September 2002): 727-744.

20. Mancur Olson, Jr. "Big Bills Left on the Sidewalk: Why Some Nations are Rich, and Others Poor," journal of Economic Perspectives 10, no. 2 (1996): 3-24.

21. The World Bank, World Development Report 1993: Investing in Health (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1993), 237.

22. United Nations, World Population Prospects, New York (1989); The World Bank, World Development Report 19S6 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1986); Livi-Bacci, 199-208.

23. Angus Deaton, "Policy Implications of the Health & Wealth Gradient." Health Affairs 21, no. 2 (March 2002): 13-30.

24. Clayne L. Pope, "The Changing View of the Standard-of-Living Question in the United States." American Economic Review 83, no. 2 (May 1993): 331-336.

25. "The Black Report," reprinted in Class and Health, Richard G. Wilkinson (London: Tavistock, 1986). See also, G.D. Smith, Mel Bartley, and David Blane, "The Black Report on Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health 10 Years ОпГ British Medical Journal 301 (August 18, 1990): 373-377.

26. E. Rogot et al., A Mortality Study of li Million Persons by Demographic, Social and Economic Factors: 1979-1985 Follmv-Up (Bethesda, Md.: National Institutes of Health, 1992); P. McDonough et al., "Income Dynamics and Adult Mortality in the United States, 1972 through 1989," American Journal of Public Health 87, no. 9 (September 1997): 1476-1483; Angus Deaton, "Health, Inequality and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature XLI (March 2003): 113-158.

27. Stephen E. Snyder and Wiliam N. Evans, "The Impact of Income on Mortality: Evidence from the Social Security Notch," NBER working paper 9197 {September 2002),(www.nber.org).

28. Angus Deaton and Christina Paxson, "Mortality, Income and Income Inequality over time in Britain and the United States," Working paper, Center for Health and Wellbcing, Princeton University (August 2001), (wvw.4vws.princeton.edu/~chw/); William H.Dow, "Introduction of Medicare: Effects on Elderly Health," presented at American Economic Association Annual Meetings, Washington, D.C., January 4, 2003.

29. The value of risk reduction is also high at the other extreme, where a person faces near certain death. If you knew that otherwise you would die, you might well be willing to give uphalf of your money for just a 1 per­cent chance pf continuing to live.

30. Dora L Costi and Matthew E. Kahn, "Changes in the Value of Life, 1940-1980," NBER working paper 9396 (December 2002), (www.nber.org); and "The Rising Price of Non-Market Goods," paper presented at the American Economic Association Annual Meetings, Washington, D.C, January 4, 2O03.

31. Isidore S. Falk, Security Against Sickness (New York: Doubleday, 1936); Jesse George Ciownheart, Sickness Insurance in Europe (Madison, Wise: Democrat Printing Company, 1938).

32. Thomas McKeown, The Modern Rise of Population (London: Edward Arnold, 1976).

33. Michel Foucault, The Birth of the Clinic (New York: Pantheon Books, 1973).

34. Institute of Medicine, Crossing the Quality Chasm (Washington, D.C: National Academy Press:, July 2001), (www.nap. edu/books/03 09072808 html).